The September Hangover; Post C4C

The numbers are in from the Post Cash for Clunkers month that many were calling the “Hangover” month—which expected to show that automotive sales would plummet after all that free money. Those who read my blog religiously (and thank you for that) will remember that I did not think that C4C had completely depleted the pent up demand that was existing since the market started it’s downward slide last September. I felt, and feel, that the availability of eligible, and really all, new vehicles ran out before everyone that needed to buy a new car had actually done so.

The September numbers that are just being released are showing the big pummet didn’t exactly happen. There were actually 9 brands that showed increases over last September, although that is still a case of the “tallest kid on JV” since last September was when lead counts and sales began to nose dive.

Not all brands were so lucky, and you can imagine which ones did not do so well. General Motors jumped back into the deep end with a nearly 45% YOY decline, but, as an admitted fan of GM, I agree that with everything that brand is going thru—closing stores, moving brands around, improving look/feel, there are going to be many months of GM declines before they start showing marked YOY improvements. Have I mentioned how awesome the Camaro is? The other Detroit brand Chrysler LLC was down 42%, but seriously, what does Chrysler have to offer? Dated products, plants that have only just recently opened back up. You can not expect to sell product when you really have nothing to sell.

The Korean brands, many that saw C4C kill it within their ranks (Hyundai was up 52% August YOY), were up once again. Hyundai was up 27% and Kia was up 24%. The other brands showing a YOY increases were Volvo (+16%), Lexus (+12%), Mini (+10%), Porsche (+8%), BMW (+2%), VW (+1%) and Subaru (+0.7%). Interestingly enough several of the “Up” brands are mid level luxury brands that were not as affected by Cash for Clunkers, but have to still have some pent up demand.

My readers’ arguably hometown favorite, Ford, actually bested the big Japanese players, Toyota, Honda and Nissan. Ford as a brand only saw a 4% decline and Ford the company (including Lincoln and Mercury—yes there is still a Mercury) saw a 5% drop. Nissan was down 6%, Toyota -16% and Honda (yikes) -19%.

Who’s the bottom 5? None of these should be a surprise: Suzuki -54%, Chrysler -61%, Saab -72%, Hummer -81% and Saturn (RIP) 84%. Yes, nearly 3000 people bought a Saturn in September, I wonder if they regret it yet?